→ 2019 Tech Trends Report — The Future Today Institute
This report is intentionally broad and robust. We have included a list of adjacent uncertainties, a detailed analysis of 315 tech trends, a collection of weak signals for 2020, and more than four dozen scenarios describing plausible near futures.
Impressive work. I particularly like the CIPHER heuristic they use in analysis signals: contradictions, infections, practices, hacks, extremes, rarities.
Updated Nov 14, 2019 Below I’m collecting a set of resources dealing with a variety of topics for shareable reference—a sort of living, semi-public ▵
→ Paul Saffo’s approach to forecasting.
[M]y mantra for this process is "strong opinions, weakly held." Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the "strong opinion" part. Then –and this is the "weakly held" part– prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn't fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. —
Paul Saffo’s approach to forecasting.
Also, reading about Paul Saffo brought me to the Long Now Foundation — so neat!
→ What worries me about the future of Silicon Valley, is that one-dimensionality, that it’s not a Renaissance culture, it’s an engineering culture
What worries me about the future of Silicon Valley, is that one-dimensionality, that it’s not a Renaissance culture, it’s an engineering culture. It’s an engineering culture that believes that it’s revolutionary, but it’s actually not that revolutionary. The Valley has, for a long time, mined a couple of big ideas. — John Markoff, The Next Wave.
Memorial University of Newfoundland
Helping changemakers change their worlds through systemic design and with innovation, leadership, and changemaking education.